Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST IS IN THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MID WEEK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL MUCH
OF THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

STRATOCU SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTH...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AS OF 0130Z.

OVERNIGHT ISSUES ARE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOCUSING ON LOW
TEMPS AND FROST POTENTIAL. STRATOCU IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE FROM EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET
AND EXPECT THEM TO SETTLE AROUND 5MPH OR SO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FROST ACCRUAL AFTER 06Z AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE
30S.

SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA FOR FROST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE DRIEST AIR AND COOLEST TEMPS
CURRENTLY RESIDE. WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 34-36 DEGREES BY EARLY
MORNING...ANTICIPATE FROST TO DEVELOP IN NORMAL COOL SPOTS AS WELL
AS ANY VALLEYS AND SHELTERED LOCALES. EXPECTED COVERAGE OF FROST
DOES NOT WARRANT INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION FOR PATCHY FROST IN ZONES...GRIDS AND HWO.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO
THE REGION MID WEEK. SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY EXISTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS
STARTING THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL TREND IS FOR COOL AND SHOWERY TROUGH
TO DEPART THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THAT
FLATTENS OUT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND GRADUALLY PUSH AND TUG A SURFACE FRONT BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STARTING THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH COMES A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BUT OVERALL MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST AND LITTLE CYCLONIC FLOW LEFT
SUGGESTING RAINS SHOULD HAVE ENDED. MIN TEMPS 40-45 STILL LOOK
OK.

FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO DRY AND SUNNY DAY BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO MID AND UPPER
60 MAX TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS COME INTO
PLAY BUT ALL SHOW SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND OF BRINGING SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE FLATTENING RIDGE IN NW UPPER FLOW WHILE
INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX AT THE SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST. RESULT
WILL BE PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDER INTERSPERSED BETWEEN DRY AND SOMEWHAT SUNNIER
PERIODS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONTAL NORTHWARD
PUSH FOLLOWED BY MONDAY COLD FRONT APPROACH TO BE THE BETTER THREAT
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 045 HAVE SCATTERED OUT AT THE KIND
TERMINAL...WITH SATELLITE INDICATING THESE CEILINGS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. WILL REMOVE THESE CEILINGS ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREA OF VFR CEILINGS AROUND 045 CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF INDIANA. APPEARS THESE CEILINGS WILL BE
AFFECTING KIND/KBMG THIS EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE A LAYERED LOOK TO THEM
ON SATELLITE...SO THESE CEILINGS MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS 340-010 DEGREES AROUND 10-13 KTS EARLY
THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7 KTS OR LESS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS

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