Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

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