Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 052009
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
409 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MODELS
ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRESENT THINKING IS
TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS
CLOSER TO ISSUANCE TIME.

THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS OK BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED
BOTH DAYS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK AS MID LEVELS WARM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND
ALLOW FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON
FRIDAY.

CONSIDERING PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM LOOK PRETTY
GOOD...SO WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WARM...HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U S SLOWLY FLATTENS AND
ENABLES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. COOLER...BUT
STILL NEAR SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN HANGING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER WEST AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MEAN UPPER FLOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL SERVE TO STEADILY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT.
THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER
COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KLAF AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...TAKING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WITH IT. UPPER RIDGE SET TO
BECOME THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CLOUDS.

CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THAT
TO OCCUR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST PASSING
CIRRUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 20KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/TDUD

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