Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED APR 01 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN OF MILD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RAMPING UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WHILE HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING PROLONGED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED APR 01 2015

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TO THE NEAR TERM AS
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THE LOOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
NOT MOVE IN TO CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AFTER 09Z THURSDAY.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT TO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY
WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. FINALLY...MODELS WARM 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES TO 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON. SOLAR
HEATING SHOULD BURN THE SHALLOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION OFF LATE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING CHART SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 00Z
MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD MAINLY JUST SEE CIRRUS TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE TOWARD 09Z
WEST PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. WENT AT OF ABOVE MOS TONIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED APR 01 2015

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SPREAD BETWEEN SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...TIMING OF THE SHOWERS EXIT AND FINALLY
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE UP ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 09Z
THURSDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS ARE SUGGEST UP TO 1.4
INCHES WILL BE OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AREA IN A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE.
THUS...BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DAY2 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD ALSO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY DROPS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT. A PAIR
OF WAVES WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD TEMPORARILY STALL
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT PUTTING AN
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. AFTER LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE SLOWER COLD FRONT DEPICTION OF
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM BASED ON THE SURFACE WAVES SLOWING DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH...A SLOW MOVING...AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...WENT NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF NORTHWEST AND JUST OVER 2
INCHES SOUTH FOR STORM TOTAL QPF. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...WENT WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON THE FRONT BEING FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

EXPECT A WEEKEND THAT IS DRY BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES AS FLOW OVER THE AREA IS WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A
LENGTHY PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY ONWARD IN THIS
BROAD RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS
WEEK...THIS COULD PROVE TROUBLESOME FROM A HYDROLOGIC PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND QUIET THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR ISSUANCE TIME WILL CONTINUE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT OR BELOW 5 KTS AND STRENGTHEN TO 5-10
KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...LEE

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