Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY FROM INDIANAPOLIS AND NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS
FOR THE SAME TIME.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...SAVE SUNDAY...WILL BE SHOWERY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SOUTHERN SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD BRING A FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST
TO MOST AREAS TONIGHT PER 12Z MOS AND 00Z ENSEMBLE MOS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
INDIANAPOLIS...WITH ITS URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT. THESE AREAS SHOULD
SEE MORE LIKE MID 30S FOR LOWS. WILL UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
ALL BUT KNOX...SULLIVAN...DAVIESS...MARTIN AND GREENE THROUGH 9 AM
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THUNDER POTENTIAL AND TIMING.

MODELS AGREE THAT A SOUTHWEST UPPER WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS FEATURE.  THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT
IN STRENGTH BUT MORE SO ON PLACEMENT. OVERALL...THE 00Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN AND 06Z GFS MATCH UP CLOSER TO THE TRUSTIER ENSEMBLE MEANS.
A BLEND THEREOF WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BE MODERATELY
STRONG AND BE OVER NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI 12Z SATURDAY...SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS 00Z SUNDAY AND SHEAR OUT OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING GOBBLED UP BY AN EAST COAST SYSTEM.

FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF FROSTY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER EASTERN INDIANA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT
AS WELL AS A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS WERE SHOWING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND
SLOW THE WARMING WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 12Z MOS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 60S LOOKING GOOD. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...BUT
WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING AS DRY AS THEY ARE...HELD OFF POPS UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 300K LEVEL RAMP UP EVEN
MORE...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES DOWN. THE BEST COMBO OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE FROM 06Z TO 18Z
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS THEN SANDWICHED BY
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT INSTABILITY PROGS...COULD SEE SOME THUNDER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.

STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AS WARM
ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES/RAIN WILL BATTLE IT OUT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AND INITIALLY COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK AND AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES BRACKET THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.
AT THIS TIME...CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
FRIDAY.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH MIDDLE CLOUDS SPREADING IN BY
LATE FRIDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UP
TO 6 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-062>065-070>072.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ060-061-
067>069.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH

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