Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 312000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. FURTHER OUT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL END BY THIS EVENING...AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH. WIND DIRECTION WILL INITIALLY BE OUT THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
EAST...AND FINALLY SOUTH TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH TOMORROW RESULTING IN CALM CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
CANADA...BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA.
AS WARM AIR AND INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT ADVECT INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT. CHANCES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO LIKELY AND DEFINITE ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING IMPROVES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS
THAT FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY
MORNING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND BECOME MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS WILL
TAKE A SUBSTANTIAL DIP FROM THE 70S OF THURSDAY TO 50S ON FRIDAY
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH
COLD AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO ENABLE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
A FEW SNOWFLAKES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND THEN WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRIEFLY GRAZE KLAF THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO MOVES
AWAY TO THE EAST...WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

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