Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND.
THEN...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONTS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY AND LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING WITH INCREASING SUN AS BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES AT 1430Z ALREADY QUICKLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

WEAK WAVE ALOFT ALREADY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE POISED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CU DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700MB AND
EXPECTATION THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON EITHER. MAY SEE INCREASES IN CLOUDS TOWARDS EVENING
AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

CONSIDERING THE QUICK RISE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
EXPECT MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
TIMING REGARDING WHEN AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF AIR ON ITS BACK SIDE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OR POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF US IN A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN STATES. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM TAKE THE FRONT ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED QPF FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE NEW 00Z MODELS. MODELS
ALSO DIFFER WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN
BRINGING QPF TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
CONFIDENCE IN ANYONE SOLUTION NOT OVERWHELMING...PREFER TO KEEP POPS
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT BRINGS
POPS TO ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHEST POPS FROM KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE AND NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
GOOD CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND LIKELY POPS MONDAY THERE DECREASING TO
LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ALTHOUGH CAPES ARE PROGGED
TO OVER 1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK
TO IMPRESSIVE. SO...NOT EXPECTED MUCH IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING...SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER ON
SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD
SUGGEST. AGAIN...COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU BUT STILL
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S PER
SIMILAR MOS AND MONDAY HIGHS A BIT COOLER IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING.
ELSEWHERE...WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO 13 DEGREES
CELSIUS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 80 DEGREES LOOK
GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FRONT WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WHICH NECESSITATES SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS REMOVED SOME SPOTTY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PAINTED IN BY THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE GFS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE AMONG SOME OF THE
WARMEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN PLAY
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SHOULD BE SOME LIMITED DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND 050
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GENERALLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PREDOMINATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS BASED AROUND 6KFT WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JAS

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