Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

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