Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1043 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PATCHY FROST WILL BE A THREAT
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER
THAT...TWO SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND JUST RAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY JUST DROPPED
THE HEADLINE FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING.
FORECAST ELEMENTS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
TONIGHT AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE LOWER TONIGHT AS WELL...SO CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH HEADLINES FOR A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A FROST ADVISORY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF FRIDAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
LOWER MIDWEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARE BEST DURING THE FRI 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME...SO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DEFINITE DURING MOST OF THAT
TIME PERIOD. STARTED TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY EVENING
AS LOW PUSHES EAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL. TRENDED ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS APRIL IS GOING TO BE TRUE TO IT/S REPUTATION AND POSSIBLY
REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

UPPER LEVEL BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING ANCHORED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
RIDGING WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

QUITE THE PATTERN SHIFT AMONGST THE MODELS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...HOWEVER HINTED AT SINCE THEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY COOL CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO START THE NEW
WEEK....THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY EVEN
TUESDAY. THEN UPPER ENERGY WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK AS IT
MERGES WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND BRINGS ON/OFF CHANCES FOR WEAK SHOWERS
TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MINOR SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION REQUIRED PER OBS TRENDS BUT TAF IS
LARGELY FINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DIURNAL MIXING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. A FEW CU ARE POSSIBLE AT KIND
AND KLAF AS THEY COME CLOSE TO MEETING THEIR LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF LESS THAN 5 KT OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ051>056-
060>065-067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD

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