Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260553
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OF
INDIANA...AND WARMER AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WESTERN
ONTARIO. COOL NORTH WINDS WERE IN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES...PROVIDING
BLOCKING OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COOL NORTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
HIGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...THUS SOME
AFTERNOON CU CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL BE ONGOING TODAY...850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BY
00Z...WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3 HOURLY MAVMOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR
THIS PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN
PLAINS TO ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WEST OF INDIANA OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUE FLOW OF DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON NORTH WINDS.

THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD AND THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS.

DECENT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING
LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS
RATHER NEUTRAL TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR
0C-1C. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
MAVMOS...GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...AND TREND HIGHS ON MONDAY TOWARD
EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
SIMILAR...KEEPING WINDS NEAR 5-10 KNOTS AND SOME SLIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS AS THE COOLEST AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND 850MB
TEMPS RISE TOWARD 3-4C. THUS WILL BEGIN OUR GRADUAL WARM ON
STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRENDING LOWS AND HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. ONGOING MAVMOS HANDLES THIS
WELL. GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ON TUESDAY
WILL WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND ON LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA LARGELY
UNAFFECTED. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW INITIALLY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
MILD...WITH SOME WARM UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA.

BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

STRONG DRYING/SINKING MOTIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD RESULT IN CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. APPEARS ANY CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 050 SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AROUND 261200Z.

SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 040 BY LATE MORNING
OR MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH RATHER LOW 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD.

SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE 10-14 KT RANGE...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY BACKING TO
020-040 DEGREES BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TUCEK

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