Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

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