Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
142 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER WEATHER AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN IS FALLING OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MOVING
NORTH...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN. KEPT
HIGH POPS GOING LONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES
GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME CHANGES TO HOURLY TIMING BUT APPRECIABLE
FORECAST FOR THE DAY REMAINS THE SAME. GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
DEVELOPING SO LEFT THEM UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

BY THIS EVENING...AFTER THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...FROM ABOUT 23Z TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WORKS IT/S WAY INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PUSH E/NE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL MOVES MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
FIRST AND NOT PACK AS MUCH QPF...AROUND 0.25 OR UP TO 0.50 AT MOST.
ALSO...BY MONDAY MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS SO WORKED OVER THERE
IS HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY LEFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAIN WILL BE LEFT IN THE AREA AND WENT DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. HAD TO ALSO UNDERCUT HIGHS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS
FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER STILL KEEPING WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
COULD POSSIBLY BRING WEAK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THAT LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL AS FLOW REMAINS
NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE TAF PERIOD . WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER INDIANA AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES. MODELS INDICATE THAT BEST FORCING IS LOST BY
00Z...THUS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE EVENING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AMID THE PASSING LOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND
TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSING WITH
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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