Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 271129
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
729 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

QUIET...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COOL NORTH WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THE WORK
WEEK PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY.

BY THE TIME WE REACH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REACHED
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 70S AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE RETURNED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT NORTH SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUED TO FLOW
INTO THE STATE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING
INTO ONTARIO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OFF THE
COAST OF NEW FOUNDLAND...AND A FEW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITH THE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WAS RESULTING IN A FEW CLOUDS OVER EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY TODAY AS INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL NORTH WINDS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
THAT TWO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH THROUGH INDIANA...THE FIRST EXITING EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
SECOND ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...THESE WILL ONLY ADD UP TO A FEW CLOUDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
50S...AND CU RULE IS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. THUS WILL EXPECTED SOME
SCT AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

AS FOR TEMPS...MAVMOS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS YESTERDAY.
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TODAY...WILL AIM TOWARD
PERSISTENCE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY GULF
MOISTURE AND KEEPING A DRY AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS INDIANA REALLY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAYS WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS FOR
TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 2C. THUS WILL USE HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE ON TUESDAY...AND WILL AIM 2-3
DEGREES WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR LOWS WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS
SLOWLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE. NO NEED TO STEER FAR FROM GUIDANCE
HERE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING FARTHER INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE FROM AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY...AND LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS.

THE RIDGE WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AT THE
SURFACE...ADVECTING WARMER AIR AND SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER AROUND MID MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 13 TO 15 KTS.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. NO
OTHER FLIGHT IMPACTS FOR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.