Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201413
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE WET PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL TRANSITION TO
A COOLER DRIER PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT
WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN CANADA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LAST BEST SHOT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND HEADED
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PROJECTED TO BEGIN CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
AROUND 4-5 AM THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE E/NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MODELS
ACTUALLY ARE DIVERGING ON WHERE THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND END UP. THE GFS IS ESPECIALLY DRY...IT ONLY SHOWS THE
PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA BEFORE EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON..WHILE MOST OF THE
OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOW PRECIP COVERAGE EXPANDING TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CWA...POSSIBLE NOT THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES....BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRY AS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SOLUTION
IS PROBABLY A BLEND OF THE TWO AND GENERALLY USED THIS AS GUIDE FOR
DRAWING IN THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

LIKELY POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
FOR TODAY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS RANGING THE UPPER 50S (NW) TO LOW
60S (SE) APPEARS VERY REASONABLE STILL. QPF AMOUNTS THIS ROUND
MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY/S RAINFALL TOTALS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE
MOST 0.25" OR LESS FOR THE AREA. ESPECIALLY FAR ACROSS THE NW OF
THE CWA WHERE NOT AS MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL.

ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL ABATE AROUND 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

WHILE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WAS CONTINUED FOR TONIGHT...ADDED IN
SOME LIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. MUCH
LOWER TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT
NOW NOT THINKING FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS THE WESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRONG OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS WILL HAVE
ABATED BY 00Z TUE.

FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
LITTLE SHORT WAVES POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION. GENERALLY LEFT THE
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DRY BY WED NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD COOLER HIGHS AND WARMER
LOWS GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SO
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM FROM ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THAT SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THOUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION HIGHLIGHTS THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THAT TREND. IT COINCIDES WELL WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO.

NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW A DEPARTING WAVE EXITING CENTRAL
INDIANA AND HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS ENDED. WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CIGS
UPSTREAM IMPROVE TO NEAR 20KFT AND FARTHER UPSTREAM IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS IS FOUND ACROSS ILLINOIS. WILL EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS
TO ADVECT TO THE IND TAF SITES BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THOUGH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS...TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 24 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS...STILL OUT OF THE
WEST.



&&



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

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