Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191516
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1115 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER WEATHER AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN IS FALLING OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MOVING
NORTH...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN. KEPT
HIGH POPS GOING LONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES
GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME CHANGES TO HOURLY TIMING BUT APPRECIABLE
FORECAST FOR THE DAY REMAINS THE SAME. GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
DEVELOPING SO LEFT THEM UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

BY THIS EVENING...AFTER THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...FROM ABOUT 23Z TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WORKS IT/S WAY INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PUSH E/NE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL MOVES MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
FIRST AND NOT PACK AS MUCH QPF...AROUND 0.25 OR UP TO 0.50 AT MOST.
ALSO...BY MONDAY MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS SO WORKED OVER THERE
IS HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY LEFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAIN WILL BE LEFT IN THE AREA AND WENT DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. HAD TO ALSO UNDERCUT HIGHS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS
FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER STILL KEEPING WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
COULD POSSIBLY BRING WEAK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THAT LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL AS FLOW REMAINS
NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...WHICH SHOULD START
AFFECTING KBMG AND KHUF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL UP TO THAT POINT AND THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND MID MORNING AT KHUF
AND KBMG AND THEN BECOME PREVALENT AT KIND AND KLAF AS WELL AROUND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AT THIS `
TIME. EXPECT IFR TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER LATE IN TAF
PERIOD THOUGH AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MON 06-12Z.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR CATEGORY DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC.

THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS
TOMORROW MORNING...SO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO IFR
CATEGORY AT KIND AFTER MON 12Z.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 12 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE IN
TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 10 TO 14 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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