Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 181002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FROM KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

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