Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

QUIET...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COOL NORTH WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THE WORK
WEEK PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY.

BY THE TIME WE REACH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REACHED
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 70S AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE RETURNED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT NORTH SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUED TO FLOW
INTO THE STATE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING
INTO ONTARIO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OFF THE
COAST OF NEW FOUNDLAND...AND A FEW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITH THE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WAS RESULTING IN A FEW CLOUDS OVER EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY TODAY AS INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL NORTH WINDS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
THAT TWO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH THROUGH INDIANA...THE FIRST EXITING EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
SECOND ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...THESE WILL ONLY ADD UP TO A FEW CLOUDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
50S...AND CU RULE IS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. THUS WILL EXPECTED SOME
SCT AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

AS FOR TEMPS...MAVMOS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS YESTERDAY.
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TODAY...WILL AIM TOWARD
PERSISTENCE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND KEEPING A DRY AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS INDIANA REALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAYS WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS FOR
TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 2C. THUS WILL USE HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE ON TUESDAY...AND WILL AIM 2-3
DEGREES WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR LOWS WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS
SLOWLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE. NO NEED TO STEER FAR FROM GUIDANCE
HERE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS
STARTING THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL TREND IS FOR COOL AND SHOWERY TROUGH
TO DEPART THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THAT
FLATTENS OUT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND GRADUALLY PUSH AND TUG A SURFACE FRONT BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STARTING THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH COMES A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BUT OVERALL MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST AND LITTLE CYCLONIC FLOW LEFT
SUGGESTING RAINS SHOULD HAVE ENDED. MIN TEMPS 40-45 STILL LOOK
OK.

FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO DRY AND SUNNY DAY BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO MID AND UPPER
60 MAX TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS COME INTO
PLAY BUT ALL SHOW SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND OF BRINGING SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE FLATTENING RIDGE IN NW UPPER FLOW WHILE
INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX AT THE SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST. RESULT
WILL BE PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDER INTERSPERSED BETWEEN DRY AND SOMEWHAT SUNNIER
PERIODS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONTAL NORTHWARD
PUSH FOLLOWED BY MONDAY COLD FRONT APPROACH TO BE THE BETTER THREAT
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU THROUGH 00Z.

NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL DROP
TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z AND BECOME NORTHEAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...MK

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