Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241703
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE FOR TODAY BEFORE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGS RAIN
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER BUT CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

LET THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES ARE
NOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AT 9 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL CONTINUE WITH FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR/AT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS WENT WITH A MOS AVERAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A CONSENSUS. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE
TURNING SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND WIND UP OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE AN EARLY
MORNING WAVE OF RAIN...THEN A LITTLE BREAK...THEN ANOTHER WAVE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR EVEN THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL
DAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAREST TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST
FORCING...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AND COULD BE SOME WIND
SHEAR AVAILABLE AS WELL. GIVEN THIS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS
POINT ONLY LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST FORCING...SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN
INDIANA. SHOULD THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD SPREAD NORTH AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND THUS KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD BACK IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES BUT STILL FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
ALOFT...PROVIDING COOL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS BLOCKED OFF FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY NE
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GFS HINTS AT A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE TRENDED
GIVEN THE LACK OF GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL TREND FOR THE DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12 PLUS HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EXPECT CONTINUING INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY
BECOME MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS RAINFALL PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT OR ABOVE TOMORROW
MORNING.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/MK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

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