Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 020225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN MAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION.  HAVE RAISED LOWEST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LESSEN RADIATIONAL COOLING A
LITTLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE TRACKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAY SEE FEW
STRATOCU ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

TEMPS...BETTER SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE. EXPECT NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN RURAL LOCALES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 40S WITH MORE URBAN AREAS CLOSER TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND POPS
FOR MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED. THIS WILL DO LITTLE HOWEVER TO LIMIT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AS
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSES THROUGH ONTARIO. PRESENCE OF
THE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMALS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ON SATURDAY
WHERE MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A TOUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S SATURDAY AND MID/UPPER 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY.
FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY MAKE A PUSH
TOWARDS 80 ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE MEAN UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT GETS HUNG UP NEARBY. THERE MAY END UP BEING
SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. CUMULUS WILL POP UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

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