Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 022256
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WARM DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FOR EARLY WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDER A WARM AND PROGRESSIVELY
HUMID AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE WABASH
VALLEY...AIDED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBTLE FORCING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
REGARDLESS WITH 19Z TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER IOWA WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PRESENT OVER
THE REGION.

TEMPS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A DECENT SPLIT IN TEMPS
BETWEEN RURAL AND URBAN LOCALES. METMOS GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS
BETTER AND WAS PREFERRED...WITH RURAL AREAS DROPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S WHILE INDY METRO AND OTHER URBAN LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT WARM DRY WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AS THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH THE POLAR JET WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE BY MONDAY...
ENABLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U S WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM NOT
MAKING ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TUESDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL COME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY PROGS
LIKEWISE INCREASE...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EXISTING OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOWER AND AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY
DRIER. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. WHILE FORCING ALOFT
IS WEAKER...PRESENCE OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

TEMPS...TRENDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAVMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THEY WERE SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS. POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE MEAN UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH
TIME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME...THINK THE THREAT MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISOLATED DIURNAL TYPE OF ACTIVITY UNLESS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS
A SHOVE SOUTH DUE TO OUTFLOWS. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS DRY AND DON/T
REALLY SEE A CLEAR TREND TO CHANGE IT AT THIS TIME.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH GET CLOSER. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND THEN RETURN AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 12 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

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