Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280703
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
303 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
INDIANA AND OHIO FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD YET POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW WITH
A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER TEXAS.

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A
DRY COLUMN. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND A
NEGATIVE CU RULE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SCT-BKN CU TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 1-2C...WILL TREND
TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WE WILL JUST BE DEALING WITH CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING
PATTERN OF WEATHER THAT WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...KEEPING DRY...NE SURFACE
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. FURTHER ENFORCING THIS IS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED
PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE 850MB TEMPS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TREND BOTH
TONIGHT/S LOWS AND WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS TOWARD PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THE MODELS THEN PROJECT A STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED UPPER LOW SPILLING OUT OF CANADA...REACHING
INDIANA LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES ON THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD LOW AND
MID LEVEL SATURATION. ECMWF AND GFS HINTED AT THIS FEATURE LATE
LAST WEEK...BUT NOW APPEAR TO BE ON BOARD FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND VERY ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL
INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LATE...AND THEN LIKELY
POPS FOR BY MID DAY THURSDAY FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY COOLER. EVEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE CHC POPS APPEAR TO
STILL BE NEEDED GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW THAT WILL PIVOT THROUGH EASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST INTO THE DELMARVA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APROACHING WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY...AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

RATHER LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND 040 AROUND THE MIDDAY
HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS AT OR BELOW 7 KTS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 030-050
DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

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