Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED APR 01 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN OF MILD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RAMPING UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WHILE HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING PROLONGED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER ONTARIO...WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. IR IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE STATES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 80S WHICH WILL BE
UNREACHABLE...THUS NO CU. WE WILL LOOK FOR JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
THIS AFTERNOON RIDING OVER THE RIDGE PASSING ALOFT.

GOOD WARM ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS
LOOK TO RISE TOWARD 8C BY 00Z. THUS WITH FULL SUN AND GOOD MIXING
TODAY HAVE TRENDED HIGHS 1-2 HIGHS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED APR 01 2015

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SPREAD BETWEEN SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...TIMING OF THE SHOWERS EXIT AND FINALLY
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE UP ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 09Z
THURSDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS ARE SUGGEST UP TO 1.4
INCHES WILL BE OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AREA IN A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE.
THUS...BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC DAY2 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD. SHOULD ALSO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY DROPS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT. A PAIR
OF WAVES WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD TEMPORARILY STALL
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT PUTTING AN
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. AFTER LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE SLOWER COLD FRONT DEPICTION OF
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM BASED ON THE SURFACE WAVES SLOWING DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH...A SLOW MOVING...AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...WENT NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF NORTHWEST AND JUST OVER 2
INCHES SOUTH FOR STORM TOTAL QPF. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...WENT WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON THE FRONT BEING FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

EXPECT A WEEKEND THAT IS DRY BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES AS FLOW OVER THE AREA IS WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A
LENGTHY PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY ONWARD IN THIS
BROAD RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS
WEEK...THIS COULD PROVE TROUBLESOME FROM A HYDROLOGIC PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18-21 HOURS...THEN A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR OR WORSE IS EXPECTED AFT 12Z THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW SOME PASSING CI TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALSO.

LATE TONIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PASSING RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE TAF SITES WITH THE
MOISTURE...PROVIDING FORCING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION AFT 12Z THURSDAY WITH CCL/S NEAR 1300FT.
HRRR PROJECTS SAT RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH EITHER
VCSH OR A -RA MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JP

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