Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 262142
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
142 PM AKDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MINIMAL SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND RUN TO
RUN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER MODELS SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY IN THE MID TERM AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN LIGHT OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WINDS ARE LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WHILE AIDING LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST
COAST. DENSE FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE HAVE ENDED AS THE FOG HAS THINNED. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH AREAS OF
FOG PERHAPS BECOMING DENSE AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE WEST
COAST ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MAY ALSO SEE MORE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

A 986 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW FORMS OVER THE YUKON NEAR BEAVER AND
MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
DELTA JUNCTION BUT MORE FAVORED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AS JUST
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 NUDGE INTO THE
AREA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT AS MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MIN RH VALUES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AS COMPARED TO THE TEENS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL HOWEVER GUSTY AN VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW NEAR SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TOMORROW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15


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