Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
843 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES CNTRD OFF THE MID ATLC CST WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS TNGT. UNDER A CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLATTENED HI PRES REMAINS ACRS THE CAROLINAS DURING TUE...WITH THE
CNTR OF THE HI WELL E OVR THE ATLC. TO THE N...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SWRD TO NEAR THE MASON-DIXON BY 00Z WED. SOME
POOLING MOISTURE AND VERTICAL MOTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM OVR NRN THIRD OF THE
REGION LATE TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENG. THUS...HAVE 20%-30% POPS IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AS SSW
WINDS HELP HI TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S.

SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS (20%-40%) WILL CONTINUE OVR NRN/NE COUNTIES
TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED MORNG...DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE/LIFT
SLIDING ESE ALNG BACKDOOR FRONT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

WED THRU THU...THAT FRONT WILL DROP INTO VA BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHILE
WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND IT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE NRN MID ATLC
CST. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES WILL LIFT NWRD OFF THE FL AND SE
CST. HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIFT ALNG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAY TRIGGER ISLTD TO SCTD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES WED AFTN INTO WED EVENG.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S.

GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY ON THU WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM
OVR SRN/SW COUNTIES. NE OR E WINDS WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING
THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD HIGHLY DEPENDENT PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST, AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL PROGRESS OF EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND
INITIAL SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. SFC RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND W-NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
FORCE THE LOW TO MEANDER AROUND A POSITION ALONG/JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES
BOTH CONTINUE TO TAKE THE LOW INLAND ALONG THE SC/GA COAST, AS DOES
THE NEW 12Z/04 GFS. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN, MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. A SOLUTION TOWARDS THE GFS REMAINS THE HPC
PREFERENCE, AND HV EDGED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD YIELD SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/T-STORMS AT MOST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWEST CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SFC RIDGING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE AREA.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS (20-30%) WITH THE (SUBTROPICAL?) LOW STILL
MEANDERING TO THE E-SE. OTHER HEADLINE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES.  E-SE FLOW WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FAVOR WARM HIGHS IN
THE 80S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. EARLY MORNING LOWS LOOK
TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUESDAY EVENING AT SBY. THERE
WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS.  THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE WEEK...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
PSBL AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT S-SW FLOW 10-15KT ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTN W/SFC HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG/OFF THE NC COAST. WINDS
HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTEND SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE
TOO INFREQUENT/MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES IN THE BAY AS MIXING
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL (VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS).
SEAS IN NRN COASTAL WATERS 3-4 FT...2-3 FT FARTHER SOUTH. GRADIENT
SLACKENS A BIT ON TUE...THEN INCREASES TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS IN BACKDOOR FASHION. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. COMBINED WITH PREVIOUSLY
REFERENCED SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING A MODEST INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO THE E/NE THU WITH TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A GFS WEIGHTED GFS/CMC
SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. WHILE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS
INCREASE IN SEAS FOR LATER THU INTO FRI...CURRENT TRACK OF SFC LOW
STAYS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS AND
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
ANY LINGERING COASTAL FLOOD THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAM



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