Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271152
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING OVER MUCH OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE KAMA TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE
RAIN TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGUY/KDHT. POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VISBYS CAN FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FROM HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14





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