Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 031452
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
FAIR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO NY
AND PA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS, DEW POINTS
FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...QUIET AND CLEAR EARLY, BUT MODELS SHOW
TRANSITORY MID DECK WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE FA
THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SCATTERED CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH 15C-16C 925MB ISOTHERM REACHING
WELL INTO NY STATE. RESULT WILL BE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS, WITH UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN FA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A TROF PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH
A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT, PUSHING THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE
SPRING TO DATE INTO NY/PA. A FEW 80+ DEGREE READINGS ARE FORECAST,
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA AND UP THE LAKE PLAIN TOWARD SYR/UCA.

COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
LIMITED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, WILL STICK TO SHOWERS FORECAST
WITH ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF QPF OVERNIGHT.

WEAK UL TROF WILL EXTEND INTO NY/PA ON TUESDAY WHILE WARM AIR
TRIES TO RETURN INTO SOUTHERN FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM12 GENERATES 300-500 J/KG OF CAPE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND AS A RESULT WE HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
325 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
PERIOD WILL BE DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK THEN THERE IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT TO THE VCNTY.

230 PM SAT UPDATE... OVERALL...A SPRING-LIKE PD IS IN STORE...WITH
NEAR TO ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY ANTICIPATED...AS UPR-LVL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN U.S.

A DEPARTING/WEAKENING SFC FRNTL BNDRY TO START THE PD TUE
EVE...COULD PRODUCE A FEW LINGERING SHWRS...SPCLY OVER SRN NY/NE
PA. OTHWS...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PTNS OF NEXT WEEK LOOK MAINLY
DRY (NO WORSE THAN ISOLD DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS)...AS RIDGING
BOTH SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL (AS MENTIONED EARLIER). DAILY
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY LATER NEXT
WEEK...SPCLY FROM FRI ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CI
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT
8K-10K FT BETWEEN 15Z-00Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NW 5-10
KNOTS BY MID MORNING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.

LATE MON NGT-TUE...OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM


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