Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 200003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING THE CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A CHANCE SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ONE OR TWO WARNING CANT
BE RULED OUT BUT THE MAJORITY SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

LATER TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. SOME WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THEY REACH ALABAMA. OVERALL COVERAGE IS ALSO
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE HIGHER POPS DEFINITELY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN SITES BETWEEN
06-09Z...BUT EXACT IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. FARTHER SOUTH...MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

88/87


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