Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 041939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY......RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE
ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY...

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WITH RIBBON OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES IN THE 17% TO 25%
RANGE...THINKING INITIAL MID LVL MOISTURE WITH FRONT WILL FALL AS
VIRGA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY SATURATE ENOUGH ACROSS
THE MTNS AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A SHADOW IN THE PRECIP
FIELDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHERE WE WILL JUST MENTION
CHC POPS. QPF WILL RANGE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW TENTHS IN THE DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS IN
VT. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT WL OCCUR WITH THIS
FRONT...ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS. ALSO...WL KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH CAPE VALUES <200 J/KG. THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS
MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...EXPECTING MID 40S MTNS TOWNS TO
MID 50S SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR DEVELOPS QUICKLY ACROSS OUR REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A
WEAKER WIND FIELD AND LESS MIXING THAN MONDAY ACROSS OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THINKING A FEW GUSTS IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR MPV WILL REACH IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
DRIER AIR AROUND 850MB WHERE THE DWPTS FALL BELOW 0C MIXING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 23% TO 33% RANGE....WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTN TOWNS TO L70S IN THE
WARMER URBAN AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN AT 5 TO 15 MPH DAILY. EXPECTING A CHILLY
NIGHT ON TUES NIGHT WITH 1028 MB SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN NY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOWS BY WEDS MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE PROTECTED MTN
VALLEYS TO M/U 30S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOME PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED
STARTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 6 TO 8C...WITH DRY AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S MTN TOWNS TO L/M 70S WARMER VALLEYS.
WILL TREND COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT NIGHT AND WARMER DURING THE
DAY...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INDICATED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY SOMEHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING HOWEVER...AS 500 MB RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. ALSO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...THEN A BIT COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING INBETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT MSS WHERE GUSTS 30-35 KTS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...WITH SOME
LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. SHOWERS WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 05Z-10Z TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY...

GETTING MULTIPLE REPORTS OF BRUSH FIRES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND PARTS OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE BEING MET ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NY AND PORTIONS OF
VT.

BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY...ESPECIALLY THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE.
GUSTS IN VT WILL RANGE IN THE 18 TO 25 MPH RANGE THRU THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...FROM THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AS THE SUNSETS. RH`S WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY 7 PM TONIGHT.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE MTNS. THE WINDOW OF
RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. THIS DRIER AIR WILL DROP MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
20% TO 30% RANGE ON TUESDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 15
MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
15 MPH.

THE 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIP DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES HAVE RESULTED IN FINE FUELS BECOMING VERY DRY BELOW 2000
FEET...ACCORDING TO THE VERMONT DEPARTMENT OF PARKS AND REC AND NEW
YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION. GIVEN THE
UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN...THESE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1144 AM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WINDS ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE ARE JUST 15-25
KNOT THRESHOLD. THOUGH LAKE TEMPERATURES LIMIT MIXING DEPTH, A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES PREFERENTIALLY ALONG SOUTH- FACING EXPOSURES.

BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS
IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA
GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV
MARINE...LOCONTO



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