Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 070232
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL STALL OFFSHORE OF SC THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW WILL BEGINNING THE DAY OFFSHORE OF SAVANNAH AND
REACH THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW STALLS
OFFSHORE OF MYRTLE BEACH AND BEGINS DRIFTING WESTWARD. FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE
AND CONTINUE SPREADING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER TEMPERATURES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
WORK TO SUPPRESS INTENSIFICATION. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENTLY FORECASTS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND TIDAL CONCERNS ALONG THE COAST THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE MIDLANDS. CONCERN WITH RAINFALL WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE ACCUMULATIONS GREATLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW
LINGERING WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF SC SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN SLOWLY EJECTING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFS REMAINS SLOWEST EJECTING THE LOW SO HAVE TRENDED THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME TOWARD THE ECMWF. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. CONCERN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
POSITION AND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL LOW. WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DIURNAL HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MODELS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. LOWER VSBYS MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER.  SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS AND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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