Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 070448
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS...CLD CVR AND WINDS
THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST OBS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FCST ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT.

PREV DISC: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH FROM WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE REGION. THIS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SOME PATCHY
STATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO
THE MID 70S OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7K FT WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SINK TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE LATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF NRN
MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY...INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS
NRN MAINE UNTIL SUN EVNG...IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE SUN EVNG INTO MON EVNG. MON EVNG THE FRONT WILL
WAVE BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL MAINE AS A WARM FRONT AS A NEW LOW
DEEPENS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. TUES MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO NRN
MAINE...INTERIOR DOWNEAST SHOULD BREAK INTO THE WRM SECTOR TUES
MRNG...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON...TO
EARLY EVNG. TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH DOWNEAST
MAINE...THE NOW MATURE LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE BTWN THE FRONT IN
THE SRN GULF OF MAINE AND THE LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW REMAINING STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
QUEBEC...SLOWLY FILLING. WED EVNG BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING
SE ACROSS NRN MAINE...BRINGING ALONG THE TROUGH INTO NW MAINE. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW MOVES EAST TO ERN NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH TO CENTRAL MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 30 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS SAT EVNG THROUGH SUN EVNG WITH SCT
SHOWERS SAT. VFR CONDITIONS SUN EVNG THROUGH MON MRNG. DECREASING
CEILINGS MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...MVFR CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON BHB AND BGR LATE AFTERNOON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS WEAKER THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL STILL
BE STRONG ALOFT. DEEP MIXING UP TO 7K FT WILL MIX DOWN WINDS FROM
ALOFT RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...VJN


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