Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 270236 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  86  66  77  56  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          70  85  62  74  52  /  40  50  10  10  10
LAREDO            68  92  64  78  56  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  90  63  78  55  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  80  66  74  59  /  20  40  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  89  61  77  52  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  88  65  79  56  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  83  68  75  61  /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM


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