Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 181957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW OVER COLORADO WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE WAS
STRETCHED FROM AROUND CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO TO THE BIG BEND. THE
PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA IS ILL DEFINED AND WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DRT SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK
CAP AT ABOUT 850MB. EXPECTING STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD. MODELS FORECAST CAPE 1000-2000
J/KG WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. SPC HAS US IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENING WILL
BE A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS I-35 TOWARD I-10. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOWER THREAT
FOR TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND END
RAIN CHANCES. THIS ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AND SUNDAY
WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY. THEN CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GRADUAL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEW WEEK. THEN A TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  88  56  74  55 /  40  -   -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  87  55  73  53 /  40  -   -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  87  56  74  54 /  30   0  10  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  86  52  73  53 /  40   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  89  58  77  60 /  20   0  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  86  53  73  52 /  40  -   -    0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  88  57  75  55 /  20   0  -   -   30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  86  56  74  54 /  40   0  10  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  86  57  74  57 /  40  10  10  -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  88  58  74  57 /  30   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  88  59  74  57 /  20   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01


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