Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 251944
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ COULD DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA REMAIN BETWEEN THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...AND THE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MADE
THE FORECAST AREA MORE STABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAVE ALLOWED THE AIR
MASS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA INTO THE EVENING. WITH COVERAGE UNCERTAIN...HAVE REDUCED
THE OVERNIGHT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW THE TN VALLEY
SHORT WAVE DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...SO HAVE LEFT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
SHOWING DECENTLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES WITH LOW POSITION AND EXPANSE
OF MOISTURE FIELD WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS THRU
MIDWEEK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM. SHORTWAVE SLIDES FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER THAN MODEL RUN LAST NIGHT
IN CLEARING OUT THE PRECIPITATION AND HOLDS ONTO IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN FEATURES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AND SHOULD LEAD
TO A FEW DRY DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLY SOME STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING BUT
IMPROVING BY 15Z. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  81  55  73 /  50  20  10   5
ATLANTA         65  80  56  72 /  50  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  71  45  66 /  50  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    62  78  50  71 /  50  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        67  85  60  78 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     63  77  54  70 /  50  20   5   5
MACON           67  85  58  76 /  50  20   5   5
ROME            62  77  50  70 /  50  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  64  82  54  74 /  50  20   5   5
VIDALIA         68  87  61  76 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11/BAKER
AVIATION...41



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