Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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