Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 070256
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
856 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS CLEARING AS WELL. EXPECT A DRIER DAY
OVERALL FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NE MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE SCATTERED WEST AND MORE ORGANIZED EAST. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SMALL LOBE OF THE LARGER WESTERN STATES
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DIRECTING THE PERSISTENT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE FEATURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH EASY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH A BREEZY WEST DRYING
WIND...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...BUT WITH ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
THIS EVENING...NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER STRETCHING OUT THE
ADVISORY FOR LONGER TIME IF WINDS ARE A BIT DELAYED IN
DIMINISHING.

THURSDAY...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DISTURBANCE LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
NORTHEASTWARD TO ALLOW SHORT-WAVE RIDGING TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM NE MONTANA. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS LARGER POST-FRONTAL REGIME
HERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.

AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS IN TWO...NE
MONTANA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND PRECIPITATION BARELY
IMPACTING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT BEING THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL COMES FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...NOT GOOD NEWS FOR
PEOPLE IN THE NEED OF THE RESOURCE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPPORT FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE CWA WILL BE SPECIFICALLY AFFECTED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ON THE
BASE AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD
SEEM TO FAVOR THE STEADIEST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING
TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOCATED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY ABOUT MONDAY MORNING...ONE THING THAT
WILL BE NOTED ARE PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IN PLACE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MONTANA MAY FIND ITSELF ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORTWAVE
UPPER RIDGE BY ABOUT TUESDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF.
ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD WHICH IS FURTHER
INDICATIVE OF REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT WARMING TREND. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM KSDY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT. MORE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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