Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 270755
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH BOTH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER AND SW FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
AND KEEP CONDITIONS PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH OK/TX TODAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING US OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. MODELS
HAVE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT QUICK...DUE TO OUR SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NE/E WHICH SHOULD KEEP DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE AND PREVENT RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WE DONT BEGIN TO
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS UNTIL LATER ON TUESDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD
START IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND ALMOST NO
INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COULD SEE A SCENARIO
WHERE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE FORCING FROM THE
LOW COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IS A LITTLE MUDDLED.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. LATEST MODELS TAKE THIS WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND DROP IT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
SE US. THIS WILL MERGE/WRAP UP WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING OUR AREA TO
THE EAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW TRACKS AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THERE IS ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM ALL THE MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD END THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
WILL BE UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND SHOULD SEE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT VFR CIGS BTWN 15-25 KFT THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE-NE AT 5-10 KTS. COMBINATION OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL REDUCE THREAT FOR BR/FG COMPARED TO
POINTS TO THE NORTH.

TT/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  49  68  52 /   0  10  60  70
SHOALS        70  49  67  50 /   0  10  70  60
VINEMONT      68  49  66  51 /   0  10  70  70
FAYETTEVILLE  66  45  67  49 /   0  10  50  60
ALBERTVILLE   68  48  67  52 /   0  10  70  70
FORT PAYNE    68  45  68  49 /   0  10  60  70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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