Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 030232 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE... DESPITE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
THERE HAVE BEEN WEATHER-RELATED THINGS TO TALK ABOUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MS...SUCH AS EARTHQUAKES. USGS CONFIRMS 3.2 MAGNITUDE
EARTHQUAKE CENTERED 6 KM SOUTHWEST OF CANTON MS AT 0039 UTC AND A
3.0 MAGNITUDE QUAKE 8 KM SOUTHWEST OF CANTON MS AT 0108 UTC.
FORTUNATELY THESE QUAKES APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED NO DAMAGE...BUT THEY
HAVE DEFINITELY PRODUCED QUITE A STIR AROUND THE JACKSON
METROPOLITAN AREA DUE TO THE RARE NATURE OF THESE EVENTS IN THIS
CORNER OF THE COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT OWING TO LATE NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ATTEMPTING TO WEAKLY ASSERT ITSELF...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED IN ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TOMORROW TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN TODAY...BUT FROM THE SOUTH AND NOT NEARLY AS VARIABLE.
THERE IS ALSO SOME MINOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF AND PATCHY SUB-VFR
FLIGHT CATS AROUND DAYBREAK SOUTH OF I-20 IN THE MORNING BUT THIS
SHOULD DEFINITELY NOT BE A MAJOR IMPACT TO ANY OPERATIONS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RECENT COOL SPELL WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED
MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA WITH A PW AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN
INCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SUPPRESSED CUMULUS
FIELD OVER ALL EXCEPT OUR SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES WITH A FEW WISPS OF
HIGH THIN CIRRUS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S AT MOST SITES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S ARE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
80S. BY MONDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. OUR CWA WILL COME
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TOGETHER THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OUR WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF OUR HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TUESDAY THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL OPEN
UP AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER OUR CWA LIMITING CONVECTION AND
ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW WARMING TREND. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK/DRY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A GRADUAL
TROFFINESS IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK LOOKS TO ALLOW RIDGING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S DRAINING OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS EVENTUALLY BEING REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
IN A VERY SLOW MOISTURE BUILDUP. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
80S/60S AT THE BEGINNING AND MID 80S/60S BY WEEKS END. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  83  57  83 /   0   0   3   7
MERIDIAN      49  83  54  83 /   0   0   2   5
VICKSBURG     53  83  57  84 /   0   0   3  11
HATTIESBURG   52  84  57  85 /   0   0   6   8
NATCHEZ       55  83  58  83 /   0   1   4  20
GREENVILLE    53  83  58  83 /   0   0   1   5
GREENWOOD     52  83  57  84 /   0   0   1   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/26


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