Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 051110 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
405 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAN WARMER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS MORNING BUT ALL CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF. EXPECT MORE STORMS
TO FIRE AROUND MID-DAY WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE CAPE WILL BE NEAR 500 AND LI`S
NEAR -2 TO -3. PW`S STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY AT
AROUND .50" SO MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE BUT A FEW
SITES MAY PICK UP A FEW HUNDRETHS ON A INCH OF MOISTURE. EXPECT
OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS TO PREVAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SO MOST OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE BEFORE 06Z. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING JET SUPPORT INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING SO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
BREAK OUT BEFORE MID-DAY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET AND STRONG FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH ELKO COUNTY SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 500 AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE MAIN
THREAT. HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BUT CAPE IS
LIMITED IN THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH .10" TO .25" IN MANY AREAS DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND LOWER LCL`S ALLOWING MORE RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE UNTIL THE BEGINNING ON NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG CUTOFF LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
APPROACHING SW NV THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER THE END RESULT IS STILL THE
SAME AS THIS TIME FRAME REPRESENTS THE BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING
DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. THE ONLY ISSUE FOR THURSDAY NOW IS A DRY SLOT
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX MAY CUT OFF THE PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS DEPICT THIS SO DID NUDGE
POPS DOWN IN THIS AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIP BEING PULLED FURTHER WESTWARD. MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY DUE TO JET DYNAMICS...HOWEVER ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER COULD INHIBIT THIS. NORTHEASTERN NV APPEARS THE BEST SHOT TO
SEE THUNDER WITH A STRONG OR SEVERE CELL NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. ADDITIONALLY...RAISED SNOW LEVELS AS WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN WESTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW WORKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD SPAN A SHOWER OR
TWO NEAR THE NV/ID/UT BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
DISAGREES...MAINTAIN THE POPS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA. BY
TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTH OFF THE CA COAST...PUSHING TEMPS BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. &&

.AVIATION...AROUND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT TODAY.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY CELL AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z.

.EQUIPMENT...THE WINNEMUCCA AND TONOPAH ASOSES ARE EXPERIENCING
TELECOMMUNICATIONS ISSUES AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE INTERNET...LANDLINE
COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN OPERATIONAL. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME
WHEN THIS WILL BE REPAIRED.&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/85/85


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