Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 052342 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY MAKE INTO WESTERN
TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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