Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 272301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM MONDAY...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO AS CURRENT TD`S IN THE 30S SUGGEST A COOL NIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S COAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A QUASI- STATIONARY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A STRONG
VORTMAX ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE VORTMAX/SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV MOVING SSE TOWARDS THE REGION. THE PRESENT
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN THE VORTMAX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOME SHEARED WEST-TO-
EAST. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
PWATS FALLING TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SURGE IN SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY
BECOMING GUSTY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OBX LATE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE AR/LA/MS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
FALL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, TO 1340-1350 METERS YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO LOW 60S ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE COASTAL LOW AFFECTING
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LOW...BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES
WITH TRACK. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH TRACK ALONG COAST
AND LEANED TO IT FOR FORECAST CHANGES. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES WED NIGHT AND EXTENDED TO NRN AND
WRN SECTIONS THU MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MSTR AND ISENT LIFT WILL BE INCREASING FROM SW BUT
MODEL HOLD OFF QPF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY FCST. WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S
COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW US WILL
OPEN UP AND PUSH ACROSS SE US AS ANOTHER UPR LOW DIVES IN FROM
CANADA AND MOVES ACROSS CAROLINAS THU NIGHT-FRIDAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVER NRN GULFMEX EARLY WED WILL TRACK NE TO VCTY OF CAPE
HATTERAS BY THU AFTN...STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. INITIAL AFFECTS FOR ERN NC WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING WED AND CONTINUING INTO THU...WITH UPR LOW RESULTING IN
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS INDICATES 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS AREA DURING PERIOD WHILE ECMWF IS HEAVER OVER NRN
SECTIONS WITH 2-3 INCHES THERE. CURRENT FCST WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF SFC
LOW TRACK.

GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING NRLY WINDS 25-35 MPH PSBL OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST WINDS BUT THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND OTHER COASTAL CONCERNS (SEE
MARINE SECTION)...ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MENTION IN HWO.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS WED-FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT EXPECTED TO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS MAINLY IN 60S. LOWS MAINLY IN 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY FCST WITH RIDGING SFC
AND ALOFT. TEMPS STILL A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL SAT...BUT WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S INLAND MON AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 701 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY AT KPGV AS THERE WILL BE A LIGHT
NW WIND AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER AREA. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. LINGING CHC
OF SHOWERS WITH SUB-VFR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN DRYING AND
VFR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE N/NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. A ROBUST VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL
SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AND POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET BUT
CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT TO THE SOUTH. MAINTAINED SCAS FOR THE SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISH 5-15 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT SOUTH TO 4-6
FT FOR THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PERSISTING TUE
NIGHT...THEN DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE WED INTO
THU...AND ROUGH SEAS MAY CONTINUE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO SAT.
SFC LOW FCST TO TRACK SW TO NE ACROSS WATERS LATE WED THROUGH
THU...AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO NE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON FCST TRACK BUT HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH LOW NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THU AFTN. REMAINED CONSERVATIVE
WITH WIND FCST AS LOW TRACK ACROSS AREA GIVEN FCST
UNCERTAINTY...BUT DID INCREASE WINDS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY TO AT
LEAST 20-25 KT.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 25-35 KT NRLY WINDS OVER WATERS THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THREAT OF HIGH
SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING...AND WILL MENTION IN HWO.

USED NWPS FOR SEAS THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST
AND WW3 FRI-SAT RESULTING IN FCST OF 7-10 FT SEAS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
HIGHER WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW...SEAS COULD BE AT LEAST 3-5 FT
HIGHER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL/BM
MARINE...JBM/DAG



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