Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC


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