Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
RISING H500 HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE
70S TODAY.  GIVEN THE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...LEANED A BIT
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD AGAIN
BE LIMITED TO SOME FLAT CU AND PATCHES OF CIRRUS.  SOME MODELS...THE
GFS IN PARTICULAR...CONTINUE TO TRY TO PAINT SOME QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING
THIS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPPING AT 700-750MB
HOLDING STRONG...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP INSTABILITY CLOUDS FROM MUCH
IN THE WAY OF TOWERING.

FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO ACHEIVE A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.  DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL
COLLAPSE IN THE EVENING...WTIH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN PICTURED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.  HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT
LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWED TO INVADE BY THE CONTINUING SMOOTHING OF THE
RIDGE.  MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AND
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH.  LEANED A BIT
BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AFTER SFC HEATING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RUN OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THESE WILL FADE WITH TIME.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY FLAT CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
6000 FEET WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND
SW UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE MIXING COMMENCES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS COMES TUESDAY WITH THE
ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.