Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 051834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY
FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH.

NARROW CAPE TO AROUND 25 THSD FT DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON WARM
TEMPERATURES. WILL EXPAND AREA OF 20 POPS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS
INTO EARLY EVENING IN LOWLANDS...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. DID ADD SOME THICKER FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING ELKINS.

WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...STILL FAVORING THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. KEPT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AOA MOS GUIDANCE.

MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING AT 4 TO 6
THSD FT AGL THAT CLOUDS COULD FORM THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING...MAKING MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TOUGHER.

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
WEDNESDAY...SO CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE.  THE 700
MB RIDGE CENTER TO OUR E TRIES TO GIVE A WEAK E FLOW INTO SW VA...SO
HAVE CHANCE POPS EXTENDING SW TO OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. WITH INCREASINGLY
MOIST...WARM...AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECTING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. SOME MOISTURE
FROM CYCLONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY MOVE SPREAD INTO OUR
CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM LOW ALONG THE COAST...AND
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND LESS HUMID AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY
FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH.

NARROW CAPE TO AROUND 25 THSD FT DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON WARM
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED CELLS FOR A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN
LOWLANDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. DID ADD SOME THICKER FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...THIS
INCLUDES EKN.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AT 3 TO 6 THSD FT BKN DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z IN
DIURNAL HEATING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHES OF CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER AND CAUSE
LESS FOG FORMATION THAN FORECAST IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB








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