Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 012321
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop tonight. Stratus will
return from the south. Expect stratus formation to begin around
06Z, along the Interstate 10 corridor, and spread to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 12Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return
to all of West Central Texas by 18Z.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon within an
instability axis running southwest to northeast through the
southeastern 2/3 of our CWA. The instability continues to the
northeast toward the DFW area in North Texas. In addition, the
shortwave trough axis is just now making it through our eastern
counties, which is enhancing instability in the same region.
Expect the isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity to continue
through the evening hours before losing instability and/or moving
east and ending for our counties. Some of these storms will likely
produce at least small hail, and it`s not out of the question with
CAPE values over 2000 J/kg noted in the SPC mesoanalysis page for
one or two of these storms to produce hail up to the size of
quarters. Much like yesterday, we have plenty of instability, but
wind shear is weak, so well-organized storms are not expected,
more of the pulse-type multi-cellular thunderstorms with marginally
severe hail that is currently taking place across eastern Concho
and northern McCulloch counties. Activity should end for our area
by 9 or 10 PM.

Tonight will be another warm night with southerly winds picking
up. Lows should be mainly in the 60s.

Tomorrow, zonal flow aloft with a surface trough to our north will
set up a good day for breezy conditions as winds look to line up
directionally from the surface through 700 mb by the afternoon
hours. West to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
are expected to develop across areas west of a Haskell to Sonora
line. With westerly downsloping/drying winds across the entire
area, and ample sunshine, temperatures will also warm into the 90s
across much of the area as well.

20

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Saturday)

Expect cooler temperatures and a dry forecast into early this
weekend. The main feature through this time frame will be a cold
front that will move south across West Central Texas Friday morning
and early afternoon. The front will be along the I-20 corridor by 12Z
and exiting our area to the south by 18Z. Expect gusty north winds
behind the front during Friday, with decreasing speeds Friday
evening. Highs will be in the mainly in the 70s Friday and even
cooler Saturday readings in the 60s. A warm night ahead of the front
will lows in the upper 50s and 60s Friday morning and much cooler
For Saturday morning with lows in the 40s.

(Saturday Night through Wednesday)

Looks like an upper level west-southwest flow pattern will  bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this weekend and the
middle of next week. The first chance of showers and storms will
be Saturday night and Sunday due to warm air advection and
isentropic lift on return southerly flow. A mainly dry forecast
for Sunday night through Monday night due to weak mid level
forcing. However, expect warm temperatures with highs in the mid to
upper 80s Monday. A potential stronger upper level trough will
affect the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper level flow
backing to the southwest. The GFS model is most agressive with the
mid level ascent and possible warm sector over West Central Texas.
If this holds true, could to see a few rounds of thunderstorms
developing along the dryline, mainly across the eastern 1/2 of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. The ECMWF model is a little more
progressive with this system and gives the southeast half a chance
of storms Tuesday night. There is still uncertainty in this
developing southern branch upper level flow pattern and will have
to keep and eye on.

21

FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow
afternoon. MSL pressure gradient strengthens resulting in strong
gusty southwest winds. Drier air is expected to prevail across
West Central Texas. The area of concern will be mainly west of a
line from Haskell to San Angelo, where relative humidities are
expected to drop into the mid and upper teens. Though winds are
expected to reach speeds between near 20 mph, vegetation remains
green from several past rainfall event. Will hold off on a watch
at this time and continue to monitor.

18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  93  64  71  44 /  10   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  65  94  64  77  46 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  64  91  66  82  48 /  10   0   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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