Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 180945
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE RESIDUAL
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN UT SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW
RADAR ECHOES UNDER THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN CWA FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY TERRAIN BASED DEVELOPMENT. THIS LINGERS INTO THE
EVE THEN FADES.

THE AIRMASS WARMS A LITTLE MORE TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD RISE ABOVE
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS LEVEL OFF SUN THEN RISE A LITTLE
MORE MON AND TUE.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SET OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION SUN. BY MON WEAK
DEFORMATION STARTS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SRN CWA TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PAC AND GIVES CONVECTION AN ASSIST.
THE DEFORMATION LIFTS NORTH TUE AND CONVECTION EXPANDS SOMEWHAT AS
THE WEAK LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ASHORE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE
OCCURRING TO BEGIN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ESTABLISH THIS WITH FORMATION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP IN
THE GULF OF AK ATTM. THE PRIOR IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE LATTER
POISED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT DETAILS REGARDING BOTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVIATE
SLIGHTLY RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL FOR SOME TIME...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA OF UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. CONTINUED
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS...BUT MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS
AS SLIGHT CHANCE TRENDING TO CHANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
TRANSITION WELL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 10-12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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