Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271918
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
318 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A ROBUST SUB-TROPICAL
JET CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN EXITING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WEAK ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND FURTHER WEAKENS AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES
EASTWARD. ON THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGHING COMBINED WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN EXITING
140+ KNOT JET MAX OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF COAST
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT WILL STILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL OPEN UP AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN CHANCES FALL
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE RAIN
CHANCE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. WITH THE HIGH THEN
MOVING OFF INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...THE TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PUSHED
TO THE RIGHT WITH RAIN NOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND 06-09Z FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 00Z, THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH
VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR DECREASING WINDS AND ABATING SEAS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVER LOW
LYING INLAND AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  83  72  84 /  60  80  80  80
FMY  75  89  75  86 /  40  50  70  80
GIF  70  83  69  83 /  60  80  80  70
SRQ  72  84  74  83 /  50  70  80  80
BKV  68  82  68  83 /  60  90  70  70
SPG  75  82  73  82 /  60  70  80  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE- COASTAL
MANATEE- COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



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