Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 040419 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
918 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER NIGHT...THEN
A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW WNDS FROM EARLIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CELLS, OVERALL WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN
THIS EVENING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE OUTFLOW MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY WHERE NORTH WINDS GUSTED
TO AROUND 25 MPH AT BISHOP AIRPORT AND A BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MOHAVE COUNTY LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY. OVERALL, MODELS CALL FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A RAMP UP IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
UPDATE IS OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL
CORRIDORS AND NEAR THE TERMINAL MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS
WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
SIERRA TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC
WINDS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...259 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS WERE
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...DEEP
CUMULUS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
BUBBLE UP OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SWINGS INLAND.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE POINTING TO NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE SIERRA NEVADA AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE SMALLEST
CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING EXCEPT IN EXTREMELY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR IN CASES OF VERY PERSISTENT BACKBUILDING
STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TODAY TO THE EXTENDED
RANGE AS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.  SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA WITH INCREASING SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS INYO COUNTY AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH BY ABOUT 12 HOURS COMPARED YESTERDAYS
RUNS SO BEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
NOW APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST BY
SATURDAY BUT SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE COOLEST DAY (FRIDAY) POSSIBLY MORE THAN
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS
SUNDAY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALMEN
PREV DISC...MORGAN/OUTLER

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