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FXXX12 KWNP 070030

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2339 (N12E59,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1/Sn (R1-Minor) flare at 06/1149
UTC, the largest flare of the period. This region remains complex and
produced several low-level C-class flares throughout the period as well.

Disappearing filaments were noted to the south and west of Region 2335
(S13W03, Eac/beta-Gamma) throughout the period. No indication of Earth
directed CMEs associated with most of these filaments have been observed
on LASCO imagery. However, a WSA/Enlil model run is in process to
determine if the 17 degree filament that lifted off from 06/1449-1557
UTC, centered near S07W18, and was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at
06/1648 UTC, is Earth directed.

Region 2335 has seen some decay in the intermediate spots. However, 2335
was the only other region to contribute to the flare activity throughout
the period. All other regions remain stable or in decay.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight, yet increasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare , over
the next three days (07-09 May) as more active regions are expected to
rotate around the east limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, suppressed by
recent geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (07-09 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at ACE was dominated by the signature of a
transient. A shock was observed around 06/0100 UTC as wind speed climbed
to 450-500 km/s, Bt increased to 18 nT while Bz dipped as low as -13 nT.
Density was enhanced through most of the period and showed a slowly
declining trend in the latter half the UTC day. Phi was mostly positive,
with a shift to negative from around 06/0500 UTC through just after
06/1200 UTC. Any signature of the decaying coronal hole was likely
masked by the transient.

Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected to persist at the ACE
spacecraft through 07 May as the CME passage continues. A return to
quiescent levels is expected on 08 May.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1 Minor) levels. A
sudden impulse was recorded at mid and high-latitude magnetometer
stations at 06/0143 UTC, with a 31 nT deviation observed at Boulder.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 07 May in
response to the CME passage. Mostly quiet conditions return on 08 May. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.