Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 052008
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 071200Z - 131200Z

STRONG SEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OREGON AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE D3/THU PERIOD WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION THROUGH D5/SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SWRN CONUS NEWD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND EWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. BY
D6/SUN...THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...FOSTERING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD TOWARD
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY D7/MON...ALTHOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WITH STRONG FLOW
ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AREAS OVER THE SWRN CONUS...A FEW PERIODS OF
ELEVATED /AND PERHAPS CRITICAL/ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

...D3/THU: SRN NM...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED BENEATH 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO
20-30 MPH SURFACE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SURFACE RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO NEAR 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...INDICATING POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE 40
PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THIS REGION HAVE
RECEIVED WETTING RAINS RECENTLY...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY
POTENTIAL RAINFALL THROUGH D3/THU SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR CURING OF FUELS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE OF FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANTECEDENT
PRECIPITATION AND RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS PRECLUDES HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/CRITICAL DESIGNATION FOR THIS FORECAST.

...D3/THU: MAINE...
AS STRONG SOLAR HEATING COMMENCES BENEATH A MID-LEVEL JET...VERTICAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED NWLY SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
MAINE. AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING TO BELOW 30 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS
SUGGEST AN ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
DEVELOP ON D3/THU. INTRODUCED A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINE TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

...D4/FRI: ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVELS ON D4/FRI COMPARED TO D3/THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH ENHANCED SSWLY SURFACE FLOW
AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT...AT LEAST AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN MUCH OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS TO OCCUR IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY AREA ON D3/THU AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA ON D4/FRI...WHICH MAY LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING.
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO THIS FORECAST ONCE AFOREMENTIONED
DETAILS AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES CLEARER.

...D5/SAT: SRN AND ERN NM INTO WRN TX...
AS STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS...VERY STRONG SURFACE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA D5/SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A HIGHER-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. 40 PERCENT DELINEATION INTRODUCED IN THIS FORECAST
REPRESENTS AREA WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS...INCLUDING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATION...DRYLINE
POSITION...RESULTANT WIND FIELDS...AND ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..COOK/GLEASON.. 05/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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