Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 032250
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 TO 28 PERCENT
BY 2 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............32  28  23  19  17  17  17  17  16  14  11  8
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  68  65  63  61  58  57  56  55  54  53  52
RH..................25  31  35  38  41  46  49  53  58  62  66  71
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.3 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   8   7   6   5   2   2   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AT 8 AM...INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   5   9   14  30  43  51  55  55  53  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51  49  51  57  63  69  74  76  77  77  78  77
RH..................78  84  79  61  49  38  31  29  28  27  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   3   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 3.7 5.2 6.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   7   8   8   8   9   9   10
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.02/RNK


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